Will GPT-5 achieve >85% on ARC-AGI-2 within 6 months of release?

Resolves YES if OpenAI's GPT-5 (or officially designated successor model) scores above 85% on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark within 6 months of its public API release.

Research Context

ARC-AGI-2 tests novel reasoning and abstraction. Current frontier models score 40-55%. The jump to 85% would require significant architectural or training advances. Key signals: OpenAI research blog posts, Chollet's commentary, and early benchmark leaks on social media.

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if GPT-5 achieves a verified score above 85% on ARC-AGI-2 as reported by the official ARC Prize leaderboard within 6 months of public API availability. Third-party reproductions on the public eval set also count if methodology is peer-reviewed.